EMF (30 May 2008) The chance of spontaneous mass uprisings is growing in Ethiopia as the population reaches at an almost unbearable level of survival and ever deteriorating economic situation, EMF sources said.
“Sharp rise of products in global market, coupled with embezzlements and government corruptions resulted in unbearable increase on food prices in Ethiopia,” our correspondent from Addis Ababa said. “People are not eating these days. Hunger, frustration and fear reign among the population.” He added.
The crisis is so severe that even some ‘well-to-do’ people are reportedly scared of going out side from home for fear of burglary. “The situation is literally swelling to its limit and is going to explode. If the current stats quo continues for some weeks, mass uprisings are expected in Ethiopia in the coming months.” Our sources said.
Some analysts are also saying that Ethiopia is at severe risk of mass rebellion since the people have been pushed, beyond endurance, by the political suppression and the worsening economic situation. This week’s protest by Addis Ababa university students is case in point.
Although the direct causes are still unknown, civil strife and inter-clan fighting’s have erupted in several regions in Ethiopia. News of bomb blast in cities has become a routine phenomenon in the country. Electricity and water shortages are regular occurrences.
“The regime seems unable to govern the country as survival becomes unbearable for the nation.” Our source said.
More information on the worsening market situation can be found [here ] (Amharic)
May 30th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Go ahead people. There is no reason for people to die of hunger silently.
May 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
kinjit,s sprit is moving over all in ethiopia , keep on moving bro and sista…. god bless ethiopia
May 30th, 2008 at 9:20 am
When is the day is the question asked by the very heart of Ethiopians. But day is to come soon.
Allow me to say this. A fig tree when it sprout and branches out leaves then suspect that the day is near. This is a biblical truth. The cherry blosoom you see in DC along the Potomac River was at one time ugly wood tree and lifeless. But now look how cherful and pleasant it is. For every thing there is a time. ” Lehulum Gezealew’…” Yegizie Jegina new innji Yesew Jegina Yelewim”.
Let me say this. At one time the Derg seemed despotic and absolute but look what happened. During the time of the Derg have you ever thought of someone in authority wanting the death of Mengistu HMariam. Now President Mengistu is now on the death row.
When the situation is ripe ” Tsewaw simola” then that is the turn. Humans are born and they all die. There is always a time.
The Wayanne were so miniture when it started in the Hills. But the masses allied with him especially that of Gondar, Gojjam, Ambo and Wollo massed him to Addis Ababa. It is the people of these regions that brought Wayanne to power. And it is these people again that are the ones that would bring him down. It is Time and Space that brought Woyanne to power not in their strength that they now are boasting.
Look the time is near but we need an organization [ an armed struggle to start up and unify the cause] like Woyanne did at its inception.
That is what the people want. The Derg was more powerful than Woyanne. Do you know that. But the Derg is gone because the surrounding regional people of Addis were galant to fight it off.
I tell you if we get a Front that we would say it is coming then it takes no time to Wipe out the Woyanne Thugs. The Gangesters would not have reached their place on what they call Tigrai. They will wither away into thin air before they reach their birth place. And I do not think Tigrai would accept them because they do have sons like Seiye and Gebru Asrat.
Allow me to say this. The situation is ripe ” Tsewaw Moletuwal” but what we lack and I say lack is a unified front that would topple our enemies in the Palace. It should not through the democratic ballot. I tell you that is not Ethiopian History. And we saw it. It proved wrong. We have been fooled. Do not fool yourself and fool the Ethiopian people and ultimately quash the spirit of struggling Woyanne. We need an armed struggle. And it now. When? NOW
If not the people would one day swarm the MENELIK PALACE AND WIPE THEM OUT FROM THE FACE OF THE EARTH.
THE ETHIOPIAN PEASANTS KNOW THEY DONOT HAVE A GOVERNMENT THAT LOOK AFTER THEIR INTERSTS. TAKE WHAT HAPPENED IN THE HUMERA AREA AND THE ANNEXATION BY THE SUDAN. THE URBAN DWELLER KNOWS THAT THEIR IS NO GOVERNMENT BUT THEY KEEP THEIR COMMUNITY PEACE DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD AT THE TIME WHEN MENGISTU FLED.
I think what we need is a unified Front that decide to lead this people. The people are ahead of the minds of the so called Intelectuals who stay abound abroad and wants to lead the struggle with
May 30th, 2008 at 9:43 am
I totally agree with Zeberga. That is what I have been saying. We need a unified front to fight our common enemy and save our unity. Forget the divisive ideolgue of Woyanne. Ethiopia is one county and one nation and a Unified Country. We may have our diversity but our Unity is what bounds us. Our enemy Woyanne to stay in power hates our Unity. Read the latest Interview of Meles in Awate.com. Look why he called our Unity as the Imperial System and how he advocated his Ideolgue- Ethnic Federal System. Mussolini started this ethnic federalism in Ethiopia. It is not new. But the ugly part of it is Meles like his predicissor Mussolini does not know that Ethnic Divisiveness is doomed to fell. The worst of it that the Ethiopian People became a laboratory for such Test of Federalism. Remember how Meles was adovocating his same ideologue in Kenya stating that Kenya should learn from Ethiopia and follow suit.
To wind up, I say again LET ALL OF US UNITE AND WIPE OUT THESE THUGS. We Tigraians are more prone to understanding the unity of the Country under one Flag than the temprary status kick that Meles is said to bring to these of his natives. By the way He and his squadron are half Eritrean and have no guts for Tigrai.
Remember this, it is time that we Unite as a Nation and fight as we fought the Italians. Otherwise their predecessors[ Woyanne] will plant and nourish what Mussolini started in Ethiopia.Unless you unite and break your yoke you will be still be bound in chains.
May 30th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Thank you Zeberga and Gidey !!
You have said it well. This is the time to go for action.
May 30th, 2008 at 10:27 am
GUUS BE AWARE ,DON’T GET CONFUSED THAT ZEBERGA AND GIDEY ARE THE SAME WOYANNES,THEY COME HERE TO DIVERT POINT OF DISCUSSION AND MISINFORM,BUT THANK YOU FOR GINBOT 7 LEADERS THAT TO WHAT EXTENT THAT ETHIOPIA IS GOING DOWN. PLEASE GOBEZ DONT’T BE FOOLED BY THE WOYANNE PPL COMMING HERE DOING THIER JOB.THEY WORK DAY AND NIGHT TO DESTROY ETHIOPIA AND BUILT ”THE GREAT TIGRAY EMPIRE” AT A COST OF 75MILLION PPL COUTRY DOWN THE DRAIN AND BE DISMANTLED FOREVER.PLEASE REAL ETHIOPIANS STAND UP IN UNISON THIS IS THE TIME KILL ONE WOYANNE AND DIE THAN;IN OUR GENERATION ETHIOPIA BE DESTROYED FOR THE MINORITY INTEREST SPONSORED BY THE WEST.EVERY ETHIOPIAN SHOULD KNOW THAT ”AIGAFORUM IS NOT EDITED AND POSTED IN ETHIOPIA BUT EUROPE”……WAKE UP BEFORE DESTUCTION OF POOR PPL WILL NOT STOP THERE,BUT IT WILL KNOCK EACH DOOR OF THE TRUE GALLANT ETHIOPIANS.THE WOYANNE REGIME IS FROM START STANDS BY LOOTING AND MAFIA MURDER OF MILLIONS OF ETHIOPIANS TO BUILD ”THE GREAT TIGARAY”…….THIS IS IS THE TIME TO WAKE UP AND THE UNITY FORCES TO STAND BEFORE TOO LATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 30th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Down with THE TPLF MAFIA GANG!
May 30th, 2008 at 10:43 am
this is the time woyane is facing exactly as Hilassilase time
the price of gas was spark the rote to be taken by Derg. now woyane in grip of up rise soon or late come with full blow.
the price of gas keep climbing very day,and it is clear Ethiopian can not afford to pay the price hack in defiantly. time for change is soon. it is not prediction a realty. please unified the have strong party to take over as government, if it is required with gun too than fear for ever from the gang that have inter connection with Shabia affiliated group. any problem appeared in the city of Addis Abeba, here come blew some explosion and blame some tribe as if the government being innocent can not do this things. please have gut stand farm do not be freak by woyanne. every thing has an end, if it is not equally balance. authorities are not the owner of the people. they are service giver to the people only. what we see in Ethiopia is apply as owner. breaking the country apart,and giving a land for foreigner as they wish. create a war front in three direction and feed a mass army. their budget for defiance is just peanut,for the army who is every day fighting war.that way the souring price is keep climbing. people can not take it any more than fighting back and remove the corrupted government.
May 30th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Oil Price Widens Ethiopia’s Balance of Trade Gap
Ethiopia’s import bill will shoot up by one billion dollars annually, claiming over a fifth of the Federal government budget, due to the soaring prices of oil in the global market, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected.
The price of oil climbed to an all-time high of above 135 dollars a barrel on Thursday, May 22, 2008. Despite the slide back on Friday - driven higher by a combination of long-term production worries and a near-term focus on tight fuel stocks - the price of oil is projected to reach 200 dollars per barrel in the near future.
This will put a painful burden on Ethiopia’s already negative balance of trade, IMF delegates said last week, after concluding a two-week consultation with Ethiopian authorities. The five-member delegation, led by Robert Corker, together with Sufian Ahmed, minister of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), gave a joint press conference on May 19, 2008, at the Ministry’s office on King George Street.
The delegates strongly believe that the unabated increase in oil price will exacerbate the negative trade balance that the IMF earlier forecasted to be 20.6pc of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the current budget year, even higher than the 12.6pc five-year average between 1997-2002.
An unsympathetic international audience, at a time when the economy has registered an impressive growth, is costing Ethiopia dearly. Nothing explains the implications of this cost better than the minimal international reserves the country has in the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE).
THE NUMBERS
$180m
An average monthly spending by the federal government to import oil.
4.1pc
Ethiopia’s balance of payment deficit in the year 2007.
20.6pc
Ethiopia’s trade balance deficit forecasted by the IMF for 2008.
The oil bill is costing Ethiopia a tremendous amount of money, according to Mr. Corker. This is a view assertively reflected in the press statement issued by the IMF subsequent to the end of the consultation.
“Foreign exchange reserves are below two months of imports,” read the statement.
Authorities at the central bank agree that the cost is becoming unsustainable.
“Ethiopia now spends close to 180 million dollars monthly for the procurement of oil,” Elias Loha, Reserve Management and Foreign Exchange Market Department manager at the NBE, told Fortune.
“No one knows when it will stop,” said Sufian Ahmed, expressing his dismay with the swelling spending of the country on oil.
Not only does this worsen Ethiopia’s negative trade balance with the world, for it buys goods and services worth over five billion dollars and sells primary goods worth only 1.5 billion dollars. It also exacerbates the deficit on the balance of payment, which for the year 2007/08 was 4.1pc of the GDP. Although it is much lower than the 4.5pc of the previous year, or the peak of 9.1pc registered in 2006, or even compared to the largest deficit of 43.4pc held by Liberia, what was recorded last year was higher than the three per cent projected by the IMF last year, or the Sub-Saharan average of 1.2pc.
IMF officials are worried that the increase in the oil bill has also become one of the forces pushing inflation higher, increasing the budget deficit to 9.5pc in 2007, larger by five percentage points when compared to the five-year average of 1997-2002. Nevertheless, the highest budget deficit of 13.6pc was recorded in 2003, a year the country’s was hit by the worst form of drought that put the life of over 13 million people at risk as a result of food insecurity.
IMF sees an increase in budget deficit from the projected nine per cent for 2008 as inevitable with the increase in what the country is spending to fill its gas stations across the country. This will undoubtedly become inflationary; in April 2008, headline inflation was 19.9pc, while core inflation (on food) was even worse at 26.6pc, significantly rising from 16.9pc at the same time last year.
The IMF has, once again, made a prescription for Ethiopia to reduce the money supply in the economy, although not drastically. The central bank, however, does not seem to be too keen to embark on such a measure too soon.
“We have yet to see the outcomes of the measures we took recently,” a source at the Research Department of the central bank, told Fortune. “We are not planning to take on another round of monetary tightening measures now.”
The NBE has taken restrictive measures twice in seven months in a bid to reduce the money in circulation, which is growing by 20pc. Last February, the regulator increased reserves banks were required to hold from 10pc to 15pc, while it also decided the liquidity requirement ratio should be 25pc, in an attempt to fend off inflation.
These measures by the central bank - coupled with the other measures taken by the Federal Government in providing cheap and subsidized fuel - did not have the slightest effect on easing inflation, let alone taking it down to a single digit as was initially intended, as Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, admitted to Parliament on Wednesday, May 22, 2008.
Despite these quandaries troubling Ethiopia, the 185-member IMF sees an economy that is promising if the current growth momentum is kept in motion. For a non-oil producing economy, Ethiopia’s real GDP growth of 11.4pc in 2007 (for the current year’s projection it is at 8.4pc) is very impressive when compared to Sub-Saharan average of 7.7pc, excluding Nigeria and South Africa. No other African country in the category of a non-oil producing economy has registered such growth in real GDP; the nearest was Liberia with 9.4pc.
By Michael Chebud
Fortune Staff Writer
May 30th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
This is what we call PEACEFUL STRUGGLE.
Ginbot 7 et others should stop their nonsense and rejoin the struggle to empower the people, organize it and make its nonviolent struggle efficient.
The people need leaders who can give guidance and direction so that past mistakes would be avoided.
Ginbot 7 movement people gave up on the struggle, left the country and said that we need to raise arms. Well, this is a clear indication that they ARE WRONG. This is a clear indication that GIVING UP ON THE PEOPLE”S PEACEFUL STRUGGLE ARE WRONG. This is a clear indication that the center of politics and change is not in the diaspora but WITHIN ETHIOPIA.
I hope EMF will get this and stop being the quasi-website of these loosers who are afraid to return back to Ethiopia and join the curageous UDJ leaders like Dr HAilu, Dr YAcob ..
May 30th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Dear Nekita:
What is so woyanne of Zeberga and Gidey supra. I do not see any thing contrary that enable you to brand them. Why do not explain why you labelled them. Is it because of their name. I thing Zeberga is a Gurage name and the Gurages do have a high level of national thinking and by far excellent for their mother land. Gidey may seem a Tigraian but yet judge her or him by what is written.
Your problem may be you are not reading at their level. You need to go to school.That is what I concluded from your writings.
Good Luck with your schooling
May 30th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I read the comment above. I forgive Nekita for branding me. I guess it is a misunderstnding. What is important is the issue involving our country. We have been free for 3 thousand years and the oldest in civilization. We have Luci that shows that we are the first human race to exist in planet earth. Read the history of Queen Sheba and her territorial boundry and how she ruled from Axum.
I mentioned above originality and history because that annoys me much. The current generation is to blame. Mengistu H/M killed the would-be elite and give way to Woyanne and Woyanne gave away Eritrea and proclaimed our Eritrean Brothers as Non-Ethiopians. Now he is giving out land to the Sudan on paper at Menelik Palace. He kills and wipes and nobody questions his integrity. What a Genaration are we.
The birth place of Tewodros is given to the Sudan. And what do you think Tewodros would say if he comes to us. What a shame we have in the Menelik Palace. Atse Yohannes died fighting along the boarder of the Sudan[may be in Metema]. What would we answer to Yohannes. Are we to say your son Meles did it. Is that the answer for this crooked Generation.
Intellecutals in the Diasphora want to lead the Struggle with a remote control. That is not a way out. We guys have to live by the people and fight for the people. Go to up the Hills we have a lot of them in up North West or East.You need to be killed to kill. Woyanne did it before it came to power. Power comes out of a barrel of a Gun.
Peace ful struggle does not work in Ethiopia. Woyanne is not a civilized Govt to deal with like South Africa or the British in India etc etc or like the recent Kenyan incident.
I have a lot to say. But again what we need is a Unified Armed I say ARMED Struggle. And go with it.
May 30th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I have been at Arlanda airport (Sweden )this morning , do you believe what i see..NEWAY from Ethiopia .. hagere nurilignn………..i never forget what he has said when that big Solomon went to Ethiopia..waht is going on ..actually there was nobody to welcome neway..two lady came and just took him from the terminal…he was graceful with Ethiopian flag while he is performing in U.S . But now he seams football player who is sent off from the field by his puffed-up play.
May 30th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Habesha!
What the hell are you talking in the middle of these Hot Issues. Are you telling us that Neway is enjoying the agony like the rest of the Ethiopian masses. What is wrong with his looks. What is Neway apart from the rest. People are dying of hunger and are massed to the Grave.
Leave us alone. Talk to Neway and ask him what happened. He will tell you what happened to him. OK. Ask and you will get the Answer
May 30th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
in your dream…….
May 30th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
dear all
i am seriously following your commenst ..you know what i got you all are obsessed with feeling of being Ethiopian. You all raise one question …how to get rid off woyanea. Follow me seriously ..i will tell you the mystery but take care of telling it for Aiga forumers since they are number one bullshit. War struggle is a very dangerous means of bringing democracy and stabilizing peace in countries like Ethiopia. Even peaceful struggle is highly blocked by nominal election board. The only way is just to enter to Ethiopia and live asi f happy with the adminstration of woyanea and do what you should do secretly. So if your work is successful ,the people will come up uprising and that is the end of woyanea. We will then charge Meles and his comrades for judgment and the judgment is hopefully execution in Meskel Square. People are celebrating that day with full of celebrations . Ethiopia then begins a new chapter of life…
May 31st, 2008 at 4:58 am
That is what ……will show each banda what a real Ethiopian means ….seeing killers dying….what a day….
Ethiopia Behakegna Lijochua Netsanetuan Tigonasefalech!!!!!!
May 31st, 2008 at 5:11 am
EXECUSION AT MESKEL SQUARE for MELES AND ALL TPLF MAFIA THUGS IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME!